A volume of collected works is almost always a bad sign for one's researchtrajectory, an indication of declining productivity as much as professionalrecognition. We hope to be the exception that proves this rule because neitherof us is willing to concede that we have reached the apex of our careers.
However, we do think that the papers collected in this volume form a coherentand exciting story, one that bears retelling now that we have the luxuryof seeing the forest for the trees. When we began our collaboration overa decade ago, we certainly had no intention of embarking on as ambitiousa research agenda as this volume might imply.
And although we are stillactively engaged in exploring these issues, when we were presented with theopportunity to bring together a group of our papers, we simply could notresist. Whether by design or by coincidence, here we are with eleven papersand an introduction, the running total of our research on the Random WalkHypothesis and predictability in financial markets.
Although we were sorely tempted to revise our papers to incorporatethe benefits of hindsight, we have resisted that temptation so as to keepour contributions in their proper context. However, we do provide generalintroductions to each of the three parts that comprise this collection ofpapers, which we hope will clarify and sharpen some of the issues that weonly touched upon when we were in the midst of the research.
Also, we haveupdated all our references, hence on occasion there may be a few temporalinconsistencies, e.g., citations of papers published several years after ours. We hope that this volume will add fuel to the fires of debate and controversy,and expand the arena to include a broader set of participants, particularlythose who may have more practical wisdom regarding the businessof predicting financial markets. Although Paul Samuelson once chidedeconomists for predicting "five out of the past three recessions", our researchhas given us a deeper appreciation for both the challenges and thesuccesses of quantitative investment management.
As for whether or notthis little book contains the secrets to greater wealth, we are reminded ofthe streetwise aphorism that the first principle of making money is learninghow not to lose it. Indeed, although there are probably still only a few waysto make money reliably, the growing complexity of financial markets hascreated many more ways to lose it and lose it quickly. We have argued thatour research has not uncovered tremendous untapped profit opportunities,but on the other hand, our research does provide some guidance on hownot to lose money. What more can one expect?
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